ATP Season – Week 7 – Rotterdam Qualifying

POSTED ON February 9, 2024 By admin

2024 – Week 7

ATP 500
Rotterdam, Netherlands
ABN AMRO Open
Court: Indoor Hard

 

A very good draw we are looking at. Including three Former Top 10 Players (Denis Shapovalov, David Goffin & Roberto Batuista Agut), The #3 & #4 Local Netherlands players (Gijs Brouwer & Guy Den Ouden) 15-year-old Netherlands phenom, Thijs Boogaard. I’ve never seen him play but have heard all the chatter. Lets break down the draw.

#1 Luca van Assche
WC Gijs Brouwer

David Goffin
#8 Gregoire Barrere

I am always a little bias when it comes to Challenger level players and that is what Gijs Brouwer is to me. Brouwer has the power when it comes to Indoor Hard Courts. But Luca defense is going to be a factor here. They played last year on the Challenger level in Pau, France with van Assche coming back from a set down to win in a 3rd set tiebreaker. Brouwer had a solid start Qualifying in Noumea, New Caledonia Challenger and than following it up with beating Former Top 10 Richard Gasquet. But than has fallen off the map only winning 1 set in 4 matches against 3 players ranked lower than him (Enzo Couacaud, Ryan Peniston & Mathias Bourgue) and 1 player ranked ahead of him, Alex Molcan. Luca van Assche also having a solid season, not losing to 1 player ranked behind him. That is the major key for these guys in the 50-100 range. Will the home country play a favor for Brouwer or will Luca continue his success against the lower ranked players? Think Luca will win but won’t be betting anything which will probably be around -250. The Over in games will be looked at as a play for sure.

David Goffin should get a comfortable win here. Barrere has had an abysmal season going 2-6 early on with his only wins over players outside the Top 200 (Dane Sweeny & Ugo Blanchet). David Goffin is 2-1 Head to Head with wins at the 2016 French Open & 2019 US Open. The loss was actually in Rotterdam last year. However Barrere was in a lot better form, having won a Challenger in Quimper 2 weeks before that and making a Quarterfinals run in Montpellier before losing to Rune 7-6 7-6.

Projecting: Luca van Assche vs. David Goffin – Winner: David Goffin

#2 Marton Fucsovics
WC Guy Den Ouden

Maxime Cressy

#5 Arthur Rinderknech

Marton Fucsovics has had a slow start to the season only playing 3 matches losing to Matteo Arnaldi & Grigor Dimitrov before beating Jan-Lennard Struff at the Davis Cup. This is a total mismatch with the only small chance Den Ouden has it being a home country tournament for him. I saw him play once against fellow country man Jesper De Jong in the local country Challenger Amersfoot on Clay in July last year. I was really impressed with his game not knowing much about him. Since than he’s been grinding on the ITF level winning a lot. This will be his first match against someone ranked in the Top 100.

Maxime Cressy has not been able to find his form from 2022 for the past 14 months. Rinderknech having beat him this past week in Marseille with Cressy winning the 1st set tiebreaker. However Rinderknech just lost to Dimitrov on February 9th and this qualifying match will be less than 24 hours later. Will Rinderknech be fit for this match and will he withdraw? Major question on this match. Would lean to a Cressy bet here because of travel.


Projecting: Marton Fucsovics vs. Maxime Cressy – Winner: Marton Fucsovics

#3 Hugo Gaston
WC Thijs Boogaard

Denis Shapovalov
#6 Maxilmillian Marterer

What a perfect match for the young 15 year old in his first ATP Level match. Hugo Gaston is not a power hitter to hit the young kid off the court and Gaston just lacks the consistency. I honestly don’t know much about Boogaard at all so I can’t really speak on his game. I will be sprinkling some money on the young kid just for a fade on Gaston.

Ahh Denis Shapovalov! As a Canadian, Canadian tennis has me more frustrated than I have ever been. I can’t even put into words down here with how bothered I am with him. He has too much talent to be playing like has for over a year now. Marterer coming in terrible form in 2024 as well. 0-3 losing to Nuno Borges, Arthur Cazaux and Lorenzo Musetti with not winning a set all year. And the last 2 matches the past 2 weeks, not even looking competitive.

Now what will be interesting & funny, if Gaston and Shapovalov win and we get a matchup between them for the 3rd time in 11 days.

Projecting: Thijs Boogard vs. Denis Shapovalov – Winner: Denis Shapovalov

#4 Jurij Rodionov
Zizou Bergs

Giulio Zeppieri
#7 Roberto Bautista-Agut

Rodionov and Bergs are two guys very familiar with each others game. They played 4 matches in a 2 month span last year with 2 on Clay & 2 on grass. Rodionov is coming in better form winning a Challenger event last week in Koblenz, Germany. He did only beat 1 player inside the Top 190 in Brandon Nakashima who has had a very good 3 week run on the Challenger level. Bergs had an interesting Australian Open week. Beating Kolar & de Loore before cramping out and losing to Dane Sweeny in the Qualifiers Finals. He received a Lucky Loser and took the first set off Stefanos Tstisipas before being hit off the court and cramping again. I like Rodionov here just being in a better form but could see this match going either way.

Giulio Zeppieri has had a very good start to the season but it scares me that he is jumping to the ATP level to fast. One thing about younger players, they get a big break and than try to stay on the top tier level the whole time. They get burnt out and start losing to players that are ranked ahead of them and their confidence level shatters. Playing an old veteran in Roberto Bautista-Agut will be another very interesting match.

Projecting: Jurij Rodionov vs. Giulio Zeppieri – Winner: Jurij Rodionov

Projected Qualifiers
David Goffin
Marton Fucsovics
Denis Shapovalov
Jurij Rodionov

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