
ATP Season – Week 7 – Buenos Aires Qualifying
POSTED ON February 10, 2024
2024 – Week 7 – Qualifying
ATP 250
Buenos Aires, Argentina
IEB+ Argentina Open
Court: Outdoor Clay
I always love smaller Clay tournament qualifying draws in South America. It is always the upper echelon clay court players from the Challenger tour. This tournament is nothing different.
Let us break down the draw.
#1 Jaume Munar
WC Camilo Ugo Carabelli
WC Roman Andres Burruchaga
#6 Hugo Dellien
Head-to-Head Record: Jaume Munar 1-0
November 11, 2021 – Montevideo, Uruguay, Challenger, Quarterfinals: Jaume Munar 6-4 6-1
Interesting match for the #1 seed in Jaume Munar to start the draw. He will have a quick turnaround after losing to Facundo Bagnis earlier on Friday. Munar did have a good performance in beating Daniel Elahi Galan 6-2 6-4 and the small upset in struggling Francisco Cerundolo. Camilo Ugo Carabelli took the week off which was shocking for a South American Clay Courter with the few ATP level events. He pulled off a good Challenger title the week before not losing a set. However, the competition was low only beating 1 Top 350 player in compatriot Federico Coria. I have always said, South American Clay tournaments are the hardest to handicap and bet. With a home country tournament and a week rest, I am going to back Ugo Carabelli here.
Head-to-Head Record: First Meeting
Congratulations to Burruchaga getting his first ever tour level win this past week over compatriot Diego Schwartzman. Diego level for the past 52 weeks has been awful but still great to get that first win. He did blow a set lead to World Number 59 in Yannick Hanfmann so will there be a lag. Hugo Dellien has always been someone to watch out for when it comes to Clay Tournaments. Just like Burruchaga he is coming off a set lead on Sebastian Baez. I see this going three sets and the winner would not shock me either way.
Projecting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Hugo Dellien – Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#2 Daniel Elahi Galan
Alex Molcan
Francisco Comesana
#5 Tomas Barrios Vera
Head-to-Head Record: First Meeting
I lost last week backing Galan against Munar and I just do not know if I trust him right now. There is not much in this matchup that makes me like anything. I did not like how Galan looked against Munar and with Alex Molcan, he is a severe inconsistent player. I will be staying away from this matchup for sure.
Head-to-Head Record: Tomas Barrios Vera 1-0
January 18, 2023 – Piracicaba, Brazil, Challenger, Round 2: Tomas Barrios Vera 6-3 6-1
A great matchup between two of the better Challenger level Clay Court players. Comesana went on a torrid streak for 2 months on the Challenger Clay swing last year going 25-5 winning two titles. Barrios Vera went on a hot streak as well winning back-to-back Challengers in April. Both are not in top form right now with Barrios Vera not winning a match in 2024. Another complete toss up in terms of matches.
This section is completely wide open.
Projecting: Daniel Elahi Galan vs. Francisco Comesana – Winner: Daniel Elahi Galan
#3 Albert Ramos-Vinolas
ALT Felipe Meligeni Alves
Correntin Moutet
#7 Mariano Navone
Head-to-Head Record: First Meting
Albert Ramos, the former Top 20 player is still battling at 36 years old. The consistency is just not there anymore with him. Watching him play, you can see the frustrations building up in matches with his body not able to keep up with his mind. Meligeni Alves has very nice power for a South American clay courter. Another very tough matchup to watch here. Instead of coming back to South America like normal after Australia, he tried a couple hard court tournaments in Europe. This will be his clay match of the year whereas Ramos got some warmup last week at Cordoba. Another toss up matchup.
Head-to-Head Record: First Meeting
These two guys are epitome of inconsistency. Moutet has had a miserable clay experience the last 52 weeks with a 3-7 record. Did not help last week losing to Federico Agustin Gomez who is outside the Top 350. It was his first match of the year so we will see if he can get back into playing form. Navone is one on my DO NOT BET list. I can never pick a Navone match correctly. There are matches he looks amazing and then there are matches he has no care in the world.
Projecting: Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs. Mariano Navone – Winner: Albert Ramos-Vinolas
#4 Pedro Martinez
ALT Andrea Vavassori
Jaun Manuel Cerundolo
#8 Thiago Monteiro
Head-to-Head Record: Andrea Vavassori 2-1
November 12, 2023 – Mallorca, Spain, Challenger (Outdoor Hard), Round 2: Andrea Vavassori 7-6 6-7 6-2
May 8, 2023 – Rome, Italy, ATP Masters 1000 (Outdoor Clay), Qualifying Round 1: Pedro Martinez 6-5 5-7 6-2
June 6, 2019 – Poznan, Poland, Challenger (Outdoor Clay), Round 1: Andrea Vavassori 6-4 6-4
Pedro Martinez had a nice run at the Tenerife Hard Court Challenger before losing in the finals to Brandon Nakashima. Pedro should have had a better year this season and I cannot wait to see what he shows in his first clay match of the year. Andrea Vavassori has not played since the Australian Open and I am not sure if its injury or not. Like Pedro form better right now so I will be backing him here.
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 1-1
October 17, 2023 – Santa Fe, Argentina, Challenger (Outdoor Clay), Round 1: Thiago Monteiro 6-3 2-6 7-6
February 26, 2021 – Cordoba, Argentina, ATP 250 (Outdoor Clay), Quarterfinals: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-2 2-6 6-3
Two mainstays on the Clay Court Challenger circuit with two very different styles. Cerundolo is the typical clay style with Monteiro being more a power clay courter. Monteiro did not make the Australia swing this year and started in Punta del Este Challenger losing to Burruchaga in the Quarterfinals. Always one of my favorite clay court players to bet on. Cerundolo had an absolutely abysmal end to the season losing seven straight matches before winning two matches at the same Punta del Este challenger as Monteiro. Cerundolo will have to gain his form soon or he will plummet in the rankings this year. I just do not think with his form, Cerundolo can win this match.
Projecting: Pedro Martinez vs. Thiago Monteiro – Winner: Thiago Monteiro
Projected Qualifiers
Camilo Ugo-Carabelli
Daniel Elahi Galan
Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Thiago Monteiro
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